Category Archives: Strategy

Russia’s Military Modernization 2015

Russia’s plans of military modernization are quite ambitious. They result from the operational needs determined by New Generation Warfare. In Putin’s own words “our responses are to be based on intellectual superiority. They will be asymmetrical, and less costly.” In other words, it’s about adapting hardware (the Armed Forces) to a new software (New Generation Warfare). One question, however, is if the sanctions are affecting the modernization plans. Accordingly to the numbers presented by the Russian MoD during session of the Board in March 11, the answer is a clear no. In 2015, 97% of the modernization was fulfilled. By now, 47% of the armament and hardware of the Russian Armed Forces are modernized.

kl2015_final-en

Overall, the troops received around 4,000 major advanced weapons and military equipment, including 96 aircraft, 81 helicopter, 2 multi-purpose submarines, 152 anti-aircraft missile systems, 291 radars, more than 400 pieces of artillery and armored vehicles. These equipment are already in operation and were used in Syria. In details: Continue reading

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Dugin’s TV Show

Aleksandr Dugin is one of the most radical Russian thinkers, one of the main ideologues of   National Bolshevism and the Eurasian Movement. I was surprised to find he has a Youtube show in English. It’s interesting to listen to his conspiracy theories and distorted world views. He doesn’t have the degree of influence in the Kremlin as some Western analysts seem to believe. However, milder versions of his ideas are quite popular among Russian officials.

General Breedlove

The Armstice in Syria

The European Military-Political Alliance (click on CC, then in auto-translate – English)

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Russian Warfare is not Hybrid

1394730896_1I’m writing this post to react to many articles I’ve read trying to discuss what became known as Russian Hybrid Warfare. Although I’m glad people finally woke up, there’s still too much misunderstandings about what it is and what it is not. The latest article I’ve read is Michael Kofman’s “Russian Hybrid Warfare and Other Dark Arts.” It’s a good one. Although he lost the target by some centimeters, the article is good to stimulate discussion.

Overall (Kofmann excluded), the first mistake is to believe that the Russians used Hoffman’s framework to shape their own strategy. They didn’t. Instead, they’ve been learning from previous experiences of warfare, mostly from the WWII, the ones based on the concepts of Low Intensity Conflict, Network Centric Warfare, and General Slipchenko’s 6th Generation Warfare. Therefore, it might be characterized as hybrid, only if it means “mix of tools.” It’s completely wrong to believe that the Russian strategy is limited to non-linear, hybrid, call as you wish, methods. They part of it, but don’t define it. The main goal is to achieve the objectives with the minimum application of kinetic force.  It should be self-evident, that force will be employed when necessary, including linear and conventional capabilities. See my paper discussing Russian New Generation Warfare. The phases I discuss are not mutually exclusive and can be operationalized simultaneously or independently. Continue reading

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Gerasimov, the Experience in Syria, and “Hybrid” Warfare

hqdefaultGeneral Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff, published a very interesting article on the “VPK – Voenno-promyshlennyi kur’er” (Military-Industrial Courier) entitled “On the Syrian Experience.” Although it is usually an obscure publication, in reality it is an important one.  It is Gerasimov’s preferred publication, followed by the “Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie”  (Independent Military Review). General Vladimirov, the vice-president of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences, also publishes there. Thus, it’s good to take a look.

I’m publishing below a bad spaghetti western English translation of the article made by a software. I changed  only what was impossible to understand. The piece presents Gerasimov’s views on modern warfare and how Russia should defend itself. It also slaps the Russian Military Science.

My comments are in green.

On the Experience in Syria
Valery Gerasimov

Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov: “Hybrid war requires high-tech weaponry and a scientific substantiation.”

The rapid development of science and technology changes the nature of warfare. Since the end of the last century, a concept that has been widely use is “high-tech war.” Continue reading

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The Western Pragmatists Explain Russia

Interesting paper discussing how the so called Western pragmatists don’t understand Russia.

The Western Pragmatists Explain Russia

By the end of 2014 the pragmatists recognized that their narratives needed revising, but they still couldn’t recognize the sources of Russia’s deep domestic decay.

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Hybrid Operations as a New Kind of Military Confrontation

Interesting article. The Russians argue the West is doing Hybrid Warfare against them and try to understand it.

Gibridnye operatsii kak novyi’ vid voennogo protivoborstva (Гибридные операции как новый вид военного противоборства)

Author(s)
V. A. KISELEV, I. N. VOROB’EV
Voennaia mysl’, No. 5, April 2015, page(s): 41-48

SUMMARY. The authors consider a new type of warfare – hybrid operations, which contain annexation of a part of the state’s territory, and also show the main components of such a struggle, having a decisive influence on such operations’ conduct.

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Russia and the EU: back to realism?

One more very interesting lecture from the LSE. It might not be the case to agree with Lukyanov on everything, but he has some interesting points to think about.

Russia and the EU: back to realism?

Download : Audio

Speaker(s): Fyodor Lukyanov
Chair: Professor Vladislav Zubok

Recorded on 3 February 2016 at Old Theatre, Old Building

Leading Moscow analyst Fyodor Lukyanov argues that it’s time to redefine the Europe – Russia relationship based on a pragmatic understanding of respective interests and capabilities.

Fyodor Lukyanov is editor of Russia in Global Affairs.

Vladislav Zubok is Professor of International History at LSE and Chair of Europe and Russia and Ukraine Working Group Dahrendorf Forum.

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