Program of the V Moscow Conference on International Security

Program of the V Moscow Conference on International Security
Moscow, April 27-28, 2016

TUESDAY, APRIL 26

10.00-19.00 / Arrival of participants, hotel check-in

13.00-15.00 / Lunch at the Lobby Restaurant

19.00-20.30 / Welcome cocktail hosted by the Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation Amb. Anatoly Antonov

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27

08.00-09.15 / Conference Registration

09.30-10.30 / Opening of the Conference

>> Welcome address by the leadership of the Russian Federation
>> Statement by the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation Army General Sergey Shoygu
>> Statement by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov
>> Welcome address by the leadership of the United Nations

10.30-12.00 / PLENARY SESSION

Terrorism as a major threat to global security
>> Distinctive features of contemporary terrorism
>> Practicing defence cooperation in counter-terrorism
>> Exploiting terrorist organizations to achieve foreign policy goals
>> Role of international organizations in counter-terrorism

12.00-12.20 / Coffee break

12.20-14.00 / PLENARY SESSION

Security challenges and opportunities for international military-to-military cooperation in the Asia-Pacific
>> Building an architecture of security and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific
>> Politico-military environment in North-East Asia. Situation on the Korean Peninsula
>> Addressing regional security threats
>> Bilateral and multilateral military-to-military cooperation among regional states
>> Role of ASEAN mechanisms of strengthening security in the Asia-Pacific

14.00-15.00 / Lunch

15.00-16.30 /

DISCUSSION. Middle East, the tangle of contradictions
>> Modern security threats in the region
>> Stabilization efforts in the Middle East
>> Coordinating international assistance in resolving ongoing disputes in the region
>> Preventing military incidents among states fighting against terrorism
>> Legal framework for the use of military force against terrorism
>> Effectiveness of the cease-fire regime in resolving the situation in SyriaДискуссия.

DISCUSSION. Traditional and emerging international security challenges
>> Evolving nature and features of security challenges and threats
>> Ability to address modern challenges and threats through the existing international security mechanisms
>> Role of the international cooperation in countering traditional and emerging security challenges
>> Use of modern technologies in identifying and addressing security threats
>> Finding solutions to international security threats

16.30-16.50 / Coffee break

16.50-18.30 /

DISCUSSION. «Color» revolutions and regional security. Role of the armed forces in ensuring national stability
>> Expanding phenomenon of «colour» revolutions
>> Factor of the military force in «colour» revolutions
>> Implications of «colour» revolutions for global security and regional stability
>> «Colour» revolutions as a key factor in the outburst of global terrorist activity

DISCUSSION. Security in Central Asia
>> Assessing current situation and predicting politico-military changes in the region
>> Factors affecting security in the region
>> Defence cooperation on maintaining security in Afghanistan and Central Asia
>> Situation in Afghanistan. Implications for neighboring states security
>> Role of international organizations in promoting regional security

19.00-20.30 / Formal reception hosted by the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation Army General Sergey Shoygu

THURSDAY, APRIL 28

09.30-11.00 / PLENARY SESSION.

Global security and military cooperation
>> Assessing security challenges and threats
>> Role of the military force in modern conflicts
>> Prospects for defence interaction in strengthening global security
>> Modern trends of international military cooperation: goals and tasks

11.00-11.20 / Coffee break

11.20-13.00 / PLENARY SESSION

Problems of War and Peace in Europe: a new security system in Europe
>> Effectiveness of the existing security mechanisms in Europe and the need for their modernization
>> Military interaction to maintain stability in the region
>> Role of international organizations in ensuring European security
>> Situation in the Middle East. Implications for European security

13.00-13.15 / Conference closing remarks

14.00-16.30 / Lunch

Departure of conference participants

Facebooktwittergoogle_pluspinterestlinkedinmail

Russia’s Military Modernization 2015

Russia’s plans of military modernization are quite ambitious. They result from the operational needs determined by New Generation Warfare. In Putin’s own words “our responses are to be based on intellectual superiority. They will be asymmetrical, and less costly.” In other words, it’s about adapting hardware (the Armed Forces) to a new software (New Generation Warfare). One question, however, is if the sanctions are affecting the modernization plans. Accordingly to the numbers presented by the Russian MoD during session of the Board in March 11, the answer is a clear no. In 2015, 97% of the modernization was fulfilled. By now, 47% of the armament and hardware of the Russian Armed Forces are modernized.

kl2015_final-en

Overall, the troops received around 4,000 major advanced weapons and military equipment, including 96 aircraft, 81 helicopter, 2 multi-purpose submarines, 152 anti-aircraft missile systems, 291 radars, more than 400 pieces of artillery and armored vehicles. These equipment are already in operation and were used in Syria. In details: Continue reading

Facebooktwittergoogle_pluspinterestlinkedinmail

Dugin’s TV Show

Aleksandr Dugin is one of the most radical Russian thinkers, one of the main ideologues of   National Bolshevism and the Eurasian Movement. I was surprised to find he has a Youtube show in English. It’s interesting to listen to his conspiracy theories and distorted world views. He doesn’t have the degree of influence in the Kremlin as some Western analysts seem to believe. However, milder versions of his ideas are quite popular among Russian officials.

General Breedlove

The Armstice in Syria

The European Military-Political Alliance (click on CC, then in auto-translate – English)

Facebooktwittergoogle_pluspinterestlinkedinmail

Russian Warfare is not Hybrid

1394730896_1I’m writing this post to react to many articles I’ve read trying to discuss what became known as Russian Hybrid Warfare. Although I’m glad people finally woke up, there’s still too much misunderstandings about what it is and what it is not. The latest article I’ve read is Michael Kofman’s “Russian Hybrid Warfare and Other Dark Arts.” It’s a good one. Although he lost the target by some centimeters, the article is good to stimulate discussion.

Overall (Kofmann excluded), the first mistake is to believe that the Russians used Hoffman’s framework to shape their own strategy. They didn’t. Instead, they’ve been learning from previous experiences of warfare, mostly from the WWII, the ones based on the concepts of Low Intensity Conflict, Network Centric Warfare, and General Slipchenko’s 6th Generation Warfare. Therefore, it might be characterized as hybrid, only if it means “mix of tools.” It’s completely wrong to believe that the Russian strategy is limited to non-linear, hybrid, call as you wish, methods. They part of it, but don’t define it. The main goal is to achieve the objectives with the minimum application of kinetic force.  It should be self-evident, that force will be employed when necessary, including linear and conventional capabilities. See my paper discussing Russian New Generation Warfare. The phases I discuss are not mutually exclusive and can be operationalized simultaneously or independently. Continue reading

Facebooktwittergoogle_pluspinterestlinkedinmail

Gerasimov, the Experience in Syria, and “Hybrid” Warfare

hqdefaultGeneral Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff, published a very interesting article on the “VPK – Voenno-promyshlennyi kur’er” (Military-Industrial Courier) entitled “On the Syrian Experience.” Although it is usually an obscure publication, in reality it is an important one.  It is Gerasimov’s preferred publication, followed by the “Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie”  (Independent Military Review). General Vladimirov, the vice-president of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences, also publishes there. Thus, it’s good to take a look.

I’m publishing below a bad spaghetti western English translation of the article made by a software. I changed  only what was impossible to understand. The piece presents Gerasimov’s views on modern warfare and how Russia should defend itself. It also slaps the Russian Military Science.

My comments are in green.

On the Experience in Syria
Valery Gerasimov

Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov: “Hybrid war requires high-tech weaponry and a scientific substantiation.”

The rapid development of science and technology changes the nature of warfare. Since the end of the last century, a concept that has been widely use is “high-tech war.” Continue reading

Facebooktwittergoogle_pluspinterestlinkedinmail

The Western Pragmatists Explain Russia

Interesting paper discussing how the so called Western pragmatists don’t understand Russia.

The Western Pragmatists Explain Russia

By the end of 2014 the pragmatists recognized that their narratives needed revising, but they still couldn’t recognize the sources of Russia’s deep domestic decay.

Facebooktwittergoogle_pluspinterestlinkedinmail

Hybrid Operations as a New Kind of Military Confrontation

Interesting article. The Russians argue the West is doing Hybrid Warfare against them and try to understand it.

Gibridnye operatsii kak novyi’ vid voennogo protivoborstva (Гибридные операции как новый вид военного противоборства)

Author(s)
V. A. KISELEV, I. N. VOROB’EV
Voennaia mysl’, No. 5, April 2015, page(s): 41-48

SUMMARY. The authors consider a new type of warfare – hybrid operations, which contain annexation of a part of the state’s territory, and also show the main components of such a struggle, having a decisive influence on such operations’ conduct.

Facebooktwittergoogle_pluspinterestlinkedinmail

Russia and the EU: back to realism?

One more very interesting lecture from the LSE. It might not be the case to agree with Lukyanov on everything, but he has some interesting points to think about.

Russia and the EU: back to realism?

Download : Audio

Speaker(s): Fyodor Lukyanov
Chair: Professor Vladislav Zubok

Recorded on 3 February 2016 at Old Theatre, Old Building

Leading Moscow analyst Fyodor Lukyanov argues that it’s time to redefine the Europe – Russia relationship based on a pragmatic understanding of respective interests and capabilities.

Fyodor Lukyanov is editor of Russia in Global Affairs.

Vladislav Zubok is Professor of International History at LSE and Chair of Europe and Russia and Ukraine Working Group Dahrendorf Forum.

Facebooktwittergoogle_pluspinterestlinkedinmail

Why Economists Failed to Predict the Crisis and How to Avoid the Next One

The London School of Economics and Political Science has been a great job publishing its lectures as podcasts. I very often hear them, to maintain the contact with Economics. One I recently heard was Professor Lord Desay’s “Hubris: Why Economists Failed to Predict the Crisis and How to Avoid the Next One.” He presented his book of the same title. For me it was specially interesting, since he covered some methodological aspects of Economics as discipline that I’ve been researching myself.

He did it in a manner that I call “Economics for adults.” Economists have been accused of loosing contact with reality for years. I have to admit it is true and one of the most significant issues for the profession. The problem is that we have very solid mathematical models, based on a very fragile theoretical and philosophical basis and often based on ideological presuppositions and political wishing. Professor Desay made an analysis, even if superficial, of these issues. Watch the video:

Facebooktwittergoogle_pluspinterestlinkedinmail